Smith must show he’s worthy

CHICAGO — Quarterback Alex Smith’s future with the 49ers beyond this season boils down to a price.

Smith was guaranteed $24 million the moment he signed his rookie contract as the 49ers’ No. 1 overall pick. Now, with all that money accounted for, the 49ers have decisions to make about further investing in him.

Smith has a scheduled, non-guaranteed base salary of $9.625 million in 2009.

So, the 49ers’ decision is this: If Smith plays well enough this season to earn nearly $10 million next year, he will remain with the organization in 2009. If not, his 49ers career will almost assuredly end after four seasons.

Smith’s quest to show he’s worthy of such a large base salary has gotten off to a shaky start. He appears to be the No. 2 choice behind journeyman J.T. O’Sullivan, though coach Mike Nolan has not made an official decision.

Smith has not taken a snap with the first-team offense since three quarterbacks — Shaun Hill was the other — shared the action in two joint practices with the Raiders on Aug. 4 in Napa.

The 49ers’ exhibition season continues tonight against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. O’Sullivan will make his third consecutive start, with Smith scheduled to enter the game with the backups in the third quarter.

All indications point to Smith beginning the season on the sideline as O’Sullivan’s caddie. Smith has not taken on a reserve role since stepping into the 49ers’ lineup five games into his rookie season.

“I’m not thinking about that now,” Smith said of his potential No. 2 status. “When that comes, I’ll deal with it. That’s part of the game too, but until then, no. So, I’m focused in on what I need to do (in the game today).”

Nolan said finances are not being taken into account when evaluating the three quarterbacks he says are still competing for the starting job.

“This decision’s going to be based on who we feel, at this point, gives us the best chances to win,” Nolan said. “That’s what we’ll do.”

O’Sullivan is the lowest-paid of the three. Hill signed a three-year, $6 million contract in February that included a signing bonus of nearly $2 million.

O’Sullivan, meanwhile, came to the 49ers with a veteran-minimum deal of $645,000 for one season. Even if O’Sullivan plays well as a starter and figures into the team’s future, the 49ers have no assurances that they can bring him back.

Because the 49ers get a salary-cap discount on his veteran-minimum deal, the team is prohibited from signing him to a contract extension prior to the start of free agency. On March 2, O’Sullivan will be free to negotiate with any team in the league.

Smith, meanwhile, is scheduled to earn $2.3 million this season in base salary — 3½ times more than the person who figures to be starting over him.

One NFC personnel executive told The Press Democrat it would “make sense” for the 49ers to release Smith before the start of the regular season, if he does not win the starting job.

The 49ers would gain about $800,000 in salary-cap room. But they would also be able to “move forward” from the disappointment of having a No. 1 overall pick relegated to a backup role in his fourth NFL season, the executive said.

However, the 49ers do not appear inclined to part ways with Smith so quickly. Nolan has repeatedly said he feels good about the three quarterbacks on his roster and believes each of them can win games.

Smith would cost the 49ers more than $5.3 million in “dead money” — bonus money that has yet to count against the salary cap — in 2009 if he were released.

Smith has not given up on winning a starting job, though.

When asked if he still believes he is in the mix to start, Smith answered, “Yeah they haven’t said otherwise, so absolutely. I’m going out there treating it like that — you have to.”

You can reach Staff Writer Matt Maiocco at 521-5492 or matt.maiocco@pressdemocrat.com