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Marin, Sonoma among Bay Area hot spots for nurse shortage, report says

BAY AREA – The Bay Area is expected to need about 14,000 nurses in the next 10 years, with Marin and Sonoma counties facing the largest shortages, according to a new study.

The data released last week by Health Workforce Solutions consulting firm in San Francisco is the first of a series of comprehensive reports planned on nursing.

Since its inception in 2004, HWS has done only commissioned studies and consulting, but its new “labor market pulse” Web site is the first self-funded product.

“This is a new product area for us. In the past, we’ve done mostly management consulting, but with all the attention around RN shortages, we thought information like this would be really useful to the health care market to continually gauge the work force,” said HWS Managing Partner David Cherner.

The Bay Area report is the group’s pilot site, and eventually it hopes to expand to every major metropolitan area. The registered nurse data is the first in a series of five reports to be completed in the next five years. The company is in the process of launching sites in four other metropolitan areas that will be completed by the end of the year. And in 2009, it plans to release another five.

The research includes personal surveys, government data and aggregated data analysis. Mr. Cherner said clients can purchase the reports in full or individually and they are available in Web format or PDF. Targeted buyers include employers, governmental agencies, staffing companies and educational institutions.

“Besides having all the numbers in one place, this is the first report that includes information that would be particularly useful to an employer, including what nurses want in employers and biggest reasons for leaving employers,” Mr. Cherner said.

According to the Bay Area data, Napa and Solano are expected to have the fastest growth in nursing of all North Bay counties, but also have the smallest current shortages.

In Solano, the number of registered nursing positions in the county is expected to grow by 49 percent between 2004 and 2014 and by 25 percent in Napa. Sonoma County nursing jobs are expected to grow by 22 percent in the same time frame, and Marin by 18 percent.

Napa had the lowest incidence of vacant nurse positions, with only 0.22 open slots per 10,000 population, followed by Solano with 0.37 per 10,000 people. Sonoma recorded 1.12 open positions per 10,000 and Marin had 0.78.

The average for the Bay Area was 0.61 per 10,000 people. San Francisco had the highest number of open positions at 1.20 per 10,000, HWS said. The data is based on information collected over a six-week period ending in March.

The research listed population growth, aging population and aging work force as the most influential factors on demand.

Marin and Sonoma are particularly vulnerable to shortages because they have the fastest aging populations and the least number of replacement nurses for those 50 and older. In total, about 50 percent of all nurses in the Bay Area are 50 years or older and 30 percent are older than 55, HWS said.

The number of graduating registered nurses decreased dramatically last year, and the supply is expected to remain stagnant for at least 10 years, mostly due to capacity constraints in educational institutions.

Between 2003 and 2004, the percent growth in nurse graduates was about 12 percent, but between 2006 and 2007 that number fell to 2 percent.

By 2030, HWS researchers project the Bay Area will be short about 25,000 nurses compared to the current vacancy of about 1,000.

The Bay Area research is available at www.labormarketpulse.com.

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