Political heavyweights battle for state Senate seat

In the heart of San Francisco's Castro District, Joe Nation is handing out campaign fliers explaining why he's a better choice for state Senate than his two primary election rivals.

It seems an odd strategy for the former Democratic assemblyman, now from Sonoma, especially because incumbent state Sen. Carole Migden and Assemblyman Mark Leno claim huge support in their hometown.

But people in the Castro are telling Nation they've grown weary of fighting between Migden and Leno -- two of the state's best-known gay politicians -- and might look to someone else.

If Nation can persuade even a fraction of San Francisco residents to vote for him, he has a shot at winning the San Francisco-Marin-Sonoma county seat, given his strength in the North Bay.

"Some people thought it wasn't worthwhile to go, but I'll tell you, I got a good response there," Nation said. "I let them know I support gay marriage. It will be one of the first five bills I introduce."

Much at stake

Pundits call the three-way 3rd District race the most compelling primary in the state, in part because of the personalities and huge campaign expenditures, but also because of the stakes.

The winner will help redraw legislative districts in 2010 and play a role in the upcoming gubernatorial election. He or she can run for Congress in two years without risking the state seat.

Because of the overwhelming number of Democrats in the district, the victor in the June 3 primary is almost certain to prevail over the Republican candidate in November.

"This race has a really compelling narrative," said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. "You have the embattled incumbent with voters in a surly mood. You have every interest group under the sun represented in the district. It's winner-take-all."

Polls put Nation and Leno in a virtual dead heat with Migden trailing by nearly double digits. San Francisco pollster David Binder gave Nation a slight advantage over Leno in a survey done for the Leno campaign in late February. The same poll gave Leno the edge over Nation after a reading of pro and con statements about each candidate.

Split could aid Nation

Some political watchers predict if Migden and Leno split San Francisco, which has a little more than half the registered voters in the district, Nation could win by dominating Marin and southern Sonoma counties, where he enjoys wide name recognition and voter turnout is higher.

The former San Rafael resident, who served in the Assembly for six years until he was termed out in 2006, would be the first from the North Coast to represent the district in more than 15 years.

"I would give it to Nation, by a hair," said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media and a communications professor at Sacramento State University.

McCuan said Nation possibly could be perceived as a "chamber of commerce Democrat" in a district that leans left-of-center. But his work on global warming -- an issue Nation has shown a passion for -- could overcome that, he said.

$2 million raised

Campaigning is intense with about a month left before the election. Combined fund raising has topped $2 million, with Migden leading, followed by Leno and Nation.

Migden and Leno did not accept voluntary spending limits that cap expenditures at $724,000 in the primary. Because of that, only Nation has a 250-word personal statement on the sample ballots.

In mailings and personal appearances, all have emphasized their support for better health care and schools, improved transportation, a cleaner environment and solutions to the state budget crisis.

Differences among the three are slight. They support a return of the vehicle license fee to close a projected $20 billion state budget shortfall.

Nation said he wants to protect education funding, and Migden and Leno have offered competing legislation on such issues as widespread spraying for the light brown apple moth, which they both oppose.

In Senate since 2004

Migden, 59, a former assemblywoman and San Francisco supervisor elected to the Senate in 2004, is dealing with personal and political setbacks.

She pleaded no contest last year in a highly publicized reckless driving case, and this year she received a record $350,000 fine for campaign finance violations after an investigation prompted in part by Leno.

Since her problems began, she has introduced a flurry of bills in the past few months while touting herself the best advocate for the region. Over a career stretching back to 1996, she has had 105 bills signed into law, including key legislation supporting same-sex couples.

"It's not about showing up places, and it's not about glad-handing," Migden told Mill Valley seniors in April. "It's about going to the dark corridors at night and making sure the job is done, permanently."

She has endorsements from both Democratic U.S. senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer; Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Petaluma; Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena; Sonoma County Supervisor Mike Kerns; and labor groups including the United Farm Workers.

One-time Migden ally

Leno, 56, began his career in 1998 as a Willie Brown appointee to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors and was elected to the Assembly in 2002. He is termed out this year.

He has championed gay rights and once was a Migden ally. Observers said bitterness over her endorsement of another candidate for Assembly caused a rift that widened with Leno's entry into the Senate race.

After announcing his candidacy last year, Leno filed a complaint about Migden's use of campaign credit cards and accounts. The Fair Political Practices Commission blocked Migden's access to money raised for another campaign and handed her its biggest fine ever. A federal judge since has ruled Migden could use about $647,000 from the old account.

Leno, chairman of the Assembly Appropriations Committee, which oversees all bills with a fiscal impact, said he wants to give voters a choice instead of "a coronation" of an incumbent who he says has behaved arrogantly at times.

"My 10 years in office have been noted by a leadership style that is respectful and inclusive," Leno said.

Leno has endorsements from San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom; Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles; Assemblywoman Noreen Evans, D-Santa Rosa; Santa Rosa Council Members Jane Bender, Carol Dean, Susan Gorin and Lee Pierce; and Susan Moore, president of the Friends of the Federated Indians of the Graton Rancheria, a tribe that wants to build a casino near Rohnert Park.

3-term assemblyman

Nation, 51, who entered the race in February, represented Marin and southern Sonoma counties in the Assembly for three terms ending in 2006.

He co-authored the state's landmark law to cut greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2020 and ran unsuccessfully for Congress against Woolsey in the 2004 primary.

The Stanford instructor and climate-change consultant said he would bring a moderate approach to spending, while sparing education and focusing on the environment.

"When you're in a hole you need to stop digging," Nation said at a candidates forum. "I think Sacramento is heading in the wrong direction."

His endorsements include former Petaluma Mayor David Glass; Petaluma Council Members David Rabbitt, Mike Harris and Karen Nau; Rohnert Park Councilwoman Pam Stafford; and Sonoma County Farm Bureau Executive Director Lex McCorvey.

In a district that stretches from the urban core of San Francisco to suburbs including Petaluma and Rohnert Park, Nation has been getting face time everywhere, including in Migden and Leno strongholds.

"All I want to do is have people give me a shot," he said.

You can reach Staff Writer Paul Payne at 762-7297 or paul.payne@pressdemocrat.com.