Voters' Head Start

Forget New Hampshire, Californians eager to jump into the fray of the presidential primary can vote Monday -- one day ahead of the granite state's much ballyhooed Election Day on Tuesday.

For years, the Golden State was essentially ignored in presidential primaries because its Election Day fell in June -- months after the Iowa caucuses and Election Days in New Hampshire, South Carolina and elsewhere.

Eager to flex its political muscle -- and draw candidates here to debate issues rather than solely to raise funds -- the Legislature moved its primary to Feb. 5 this year.

That means the ever-burgeoning number of absentee voters can make their choice Monday -- a day ahead of those in New Hampshire.

Not that many will.

"I think people are going to be in shock when they get an absentee mailer in their mailbox," said Terry Price, a political consultant based in Santa Rosa.

The Sonoma County Registrar of Voters office expects to send out more than 133,000 vote-by-mail ballots beginning Monday and winding down by Thursday. But those chomping at the bit can walk into the Registrar's Fiscal Drive office and cast their vote Monday if they choose.

But unlike in New Hampshire on Tuesday, those ballots will be set aside and not actually counted until Election Day on Feb. 5.

More than 133,400 -- approximately 58 percent -- of Sonoma County's 228,600 registered voters are signed up to vote by mail.

As recently as 2002, that number hovered around 74,700.

"It seems voters are very comfortable with getting their ballots by mail and being able to vote them in the comfort of their home," said Gloria Colter, assistant registrar of voters. "So through the years, they have increasingly applied for and voted ballots by mail."

California's substantial vote-by-mail population -- about 44 percent of its 16 million registered voters -- is likely to mean that targeted voters may begin getting some politically motivated phone calls almost immediately, Price said.

"You can definitely count on phone calls -- volunteer-based calls and robo-calls," he said. "Permanent absentees with a high propensity to vote are going to start getting calls right when they get their ballots."

California is coveted for its sheer number of voters, but it is also daunting because of its high-priced TV ad time. There are a lot of voters here, but they are sometimes hard to reach, pundits say.

That means Californians are likely to hear mostly from candidates with big money: Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Rudy Guiliani.

They are likely to descend fast, as turnaround for absentee voters is usually quick, said Brian Sobel, a political consultant based in Petaluma.

"They are finding that between 24 and 72 hours, most people are returning their ballots," he said. "You have to make a concerted effort for the absentee vote because by the time Election Day is up, people have already cast their ballot."

But this contest may be different, according to Price.

"Everybody I am talking to is all over the map," he said about which candidate is generating the most buzz.

"Frankly, I am in the camp that I want the Democrat who can win and having some kind of indication of who that's going to be from the Midwest and South and Florida -- it would be nice to see how other people are feeling," he said.

Obama, the freshman Senator from Illinois, pulled off what some called a stunning upset by winning Iowa handily. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards finished second and Clinton came in third.

On the Republican side, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee capitalized on a wave of momentum and soundly beat former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who outspent Huckabee 20-to-one in the Hawkeye state. Former Sen. Tennessee Fred Thompson came in third.

In this election, those who are registered Declines to State can request either a Democratic or American Independent party ballot, but not a Republican ballot.

Parties can make a determination before each election about whether to allow the growing number of Declines to States voters to vote on their ballot, Colter said.

Declines to State voter numbers have soared in recent years. In Sonoma County, Democrats represent 51 percent of registered voters, Republicans comprise 25 percent and Declines to State are 19 percent.

The last day to register or re-register with a different political party for the Feb. 5 election is Jan. 22.

Despite the unique opportunity to vote before those in New Hampshire, Sobel said he is likely to hold off and watch things unfold for a few more weeks.

"I think for this one, for the presidential primary, it might be very interesting to just hold on and watch additional debate," Sobel said. "I think there is more to come."

You can reach Staff Writer Kerry Benefield at 526-8671 or kerry.benefield@pressdemocrat.

com.